Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares detected.
Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the
period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic
structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and
was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 – 23 January) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1401 or 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and
continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was
associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19
January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of
day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with
a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 141
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 004/005-010/010-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/35
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/30/40
Minor storm 01/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/10