Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 January 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1041 (S25E77)
produced four M-class flares during the past 24 hours, as well as
numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was an M3.4/Sf at
20/1755Z. Region 1041 was classified as a Cso-beta group with six
spots, as it rotated on to the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Occasional M-class flares are likely. Frequent C-class
flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with isolated minor storm
conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region
around 20/0900Z. Solar wind velocity increased from 300 km/s to a
max of 525 km/s at 20/1834 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) activity showed an enhancement of total field of 19 nT, and
the southern component of the IMF ranged between +15 nT and -17 nT.
Density reached 48 p/cc at 20/1546Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 January).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 082
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 083/084/085
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01