Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to the continued influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period of 21-23 January.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Jan 070
• Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01