Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 939 (S03W17) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with isolated C-flare activity possible from Region 939.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 650 km/s to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

• Class M 01/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Jan 079
• Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01