Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 848 (S20E10) underwent slow growth and developed minor magnetic mixing; however, no activity of note was observed this period. The remainder of the solar disk and limb was quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 848.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 23 January as a high speed coronal hole stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 20 Jan 091
• Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/30
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01