Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1161 (N11W28) grew slightly in areal coverage and maintained
a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1162 (N18W32) remained
stable throughout the period. Both regions produced C-class
activity and Region 1161 produced a long duration B6 event at
20/1837Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (21-23 February). Regions 1161
and 1162 are both capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (21-23
February).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 105
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01