Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 20, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 20 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. There was no
reported flare activity during the period. Region 562 (S11E59) is a
two spot simple beta region. Newly numbered Region 563 (S21E66) is
an alpha group. Region 561 (N02W01) is the only other spotted
region on the solar disk, displaying a single small penumbral spot.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated active conditions on
22 and 23 February.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Feb 095
  • Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 095/095/090
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/010-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.