Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 20 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. There was no
reported flare activity during the period. Region 562 (S11E59) is a
two spot simple beta region. Newly numbered Region 563 (S21E66) is
an alpha group. Region 561 (N02W01) is the only other spotted
region on the solar disk, displaying a single small penumbral spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated active conditions on
22 and 23 February.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 20 Feb 095
- Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 095/095/090
- 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 05/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
