Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Isolated low-level B-class
flares occurred during the latter half of the period. Region 1035
(N31W70) showed no significant changes during the period. New Region
1038 (N16W26), a simply-structured A-type group, was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with an isolated C-class flare possible from Region 1035.
There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (21 – 23
December).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M 10/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 084
Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 084/080/076
90 Day Mean 20 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01