Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 20, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 20 2218 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S14W72) produced multiple B-class and C-class flares including a C2.9 flare at 20/1632Z. This region also produced a long duration C-class flare with maximum occurring at 20/1346Z, An associated CME was observed on the southwest limb in LASCO imagery at 20/1442Z. The plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be 300 km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. There was a period of severe storm levels from 1200 – 1800Z recorded on the College, AK magnetometer. This activity is likely due to the full halo CME observed on 16 August.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period, 21 – 23 August. Due to the relatively slow speed of the CME mentioned above, no effects are anticipated during this forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Aug 088
  • Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 090/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 021/038
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 022/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 008/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.