Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Aug 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
August 20, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred in the
last 24 hours. Region 431 (S10W84) is quietly rotating around the
west solar limb. Region 436 (N07E29) has changed little since
yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 431 and 436.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active for the next 24 hours. Mostly
active conditions are expected by 22 August in response to a
recurrent high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug

  • Class M 25/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 20 Aug 112
  • Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 110/105/100
  • 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 018/021
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 015/020-020/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/30/30
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/50/50
  • Minor storm 10/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.