Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Aug 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 69 (S03W44) produced four M-class events during the period, the largest was an M5/1n at 20/0140 UTC. This region continues to maintain its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. An isolated major flare is possible from Region 69. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with major storm conditions observed at high latitudes IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible due to the activity over the past several days. III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Aug 228 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 225/220/220 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 012/014-012/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05
