Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1105 (N19W09) was numbered today but
remains quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low for the next 3 days (3-5 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of
unsettled conditions overnight. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (3-4 September). Quiet
to unsettled with the chance for isolated active conditions are
forecast on day 3 (5 September) due to possible recurrent effects.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 077
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 078/078/076
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01