Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
a single B5 x-ray event at 0851Z from Region 1109 (N21W65). Region
1109 continues to be the largest of the two spotted groups on the
disk but showed decay in the trailer spots and was generally quiet
and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
generally very low for the next three days (03-05 October).There is,
however, a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (03-04 October). Quiet
levels should also prevail on the third day (05 October) but there
is a chance for some isolated unsettled intervals due to possible
effects from a weak high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 085
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01