Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Oct 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 134 (N12W15) and Region 137 (S18E21) both produced low C-class flares during the period. Region 134 continues to retain a delta magnetic configuration and has grown in overall area coverage. Region 137 has also grown in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 138 (N09W11). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 134 and 137 both have potential for producing an M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm conditions. Although the exact source for this activity is unknown, solar wind data suggests a transient signature. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active periods are possible on 02-03 October due to several CME's observed on 30 September. III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Oct 140 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 021/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 030/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 010/015-015/020-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/20 Minor storm 15/20/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/40/30 Minor storm 20/25/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05
