Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N18E63) produced
occasional C-class flares, the largest of which was a C7/Sf at
02/1721Z. It rotated more fully into view as a Dkc/beta-gamma group.
No significant changes were observed in Region 1339, but analysis
was hampered by east limb proximity. No significant changes
occurred in the remaining regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (03 – 05 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with
minor to major storm periods detected at high latitudes due to
persistent effects from a coronal transient.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (03 –
05 November) with a chance for active levels on 05 November due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME mentioned in yesterday’s
report is expected to arrive at Earth early on 04 November, but is
not expected to significantly disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 154
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 160/165/165
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 007/008-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01