Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Nov 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
November 2, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  An optically uncorrelated
long duration C3 event occurred at 02/0607 UTC.  The LASCO/SOHO
imagery indicate the possible source as being a CME observed just
over the NW limb which does not appear to be Earth directed.  Region
177 (N16E31) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk
and has grown slightly since yesterday.  Two new regions were
numbered today as Region 181 (S06E42) and 182 (S17E68).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 177 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at 02/1200 UTC.  A steady increase
in the solar wind with intermittent periods of southward Bz allowed
for the minor storming observed today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to active for the next three
days in response to a recurring coronal hole.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 165
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  170/175/175
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 175

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  020/025-015/025-010/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.