Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Old Region 1468 (N11W96) produced two low level C-class
events before rotating off the west limb. Region 1469 (S23W39)
showed some rapid growth in the trailer spot region and is now
magnetically classified as a beta-gamma. As Region 1469 was growing,
it also produced two C-class x-ray events. Early in the period, a
full-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, but analysis
indicated this was a backsided event. Around 02/1007Z, in SDO
imagery, a large filament was observed lifting off the northwest
limb of the solar disk. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME around
02/1336Z that is believed to be associated with the filament
eruption. Further analysis is needed to determine if this CME will
become geoeffective. A new region was numbered today, Region 1474
(N14E71), as it rotated onto the northeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (03 – 05 May) as Regions 1469 and 1471 (S21E19) continue
to evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (03 – 05
May).
III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 116
Predicted 03 May-05 May 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 02 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05