Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25E08) produced
a C1/Sf x-ray flare at 02/1318Z, the only flare of significance
during the period. Region 1164 decreased in area, but remained an
Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics.
New Region 1166 (N10E77) rotated onto the disk as an Hsx type spot
group with Alpha magnetic characteristics. A flux region emerged in
the northeast quadrant near N20E40.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (03-05 March), however a chance exists for
an M-class event from Region 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for the
first 12 hours of the period and at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream remains
geoeffective. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained
elevated at 640 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field began the period near -10 nT but slowly returned to
near neutral values by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to occasionally active for the next three
days (03-05 March) due to the continued influence of the coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 113
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05