Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C3 flare was observed from
the west limb at 01/2241Z. It was accompanied by a Type II radio
emission (936 km/s) and a non-earth-directed CME. Region 1498
(N08E55) produced a C2 flare at 02/0105Z and 1493 (N15E35) produced
C1 flare at 02/0431Z. New flux emerged near S12W40 and N17E65. All
eight regions on the disk exhibited simple beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was primarily quiet for the first half of the
day, increasing to unsettled levels during the 15-18Z synoptic
period. At the ACE spacecraft, low energy particles detected by the
EPAM instrument began rising about 02/06Z, finally leveling off
around 02/14Z. Bz began turning southward around 02/1410Z,
decreasing to around -7 nT where it remained. The solar sector
switched from negative to positive at the same time. Solar wind
speed ranged between 340 and 360 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an
isolated active period on day one (3 June). Activity is expected to
increase to unsettled levels on day two (4 June) and active levels
on day three (5 June), with a chance for minor storm periods both
days. The disturbance is expected as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 129
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 009/010-013/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/50/50