Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22E01) produced
several C-class events during the period. This region is a Dsi
group with a beta magnetic classification. A further analysis of
LASCO imagery correlated the C4/1f at 01/1708Z from Region 1226 to a
Earth directed partial-halo CME. This event was observed by STEREO
COR2 imagery at 01/2009Z. Region 1227 (S19E13) is also a D-type
group with a beta magnetic classification. It produced a C3/2n at
02/0746Z with an associated Type IV radio sweep, and a Earth
directed partial-halo CME. STEREO COR2 and LASCO C3 imagery
observed the event with a plane-of-sky speed of 831 km/s. New
Region 1232 (N10E61) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (03 June). Active
conditions with isolated minor storm levels are expected for day two
(04 June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective,
and additional effects from recent CME activity. Day three (05
June) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 112
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 112/110/110
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/012-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/30
Minor storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/45/35
Minor storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/05