Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1076 (S21W21) has grown in area, sunspot number,
and is magnetically classified as a Beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the
next three days (03-05 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. The ACE spacecraft observations show the continued
presence and of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Throughout the
period, solar wind speeds have decreased from 550 km/s to 427 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated
active periods for the next three days (03 – 05 June). Activity on
day one and day two (03-04 June) is due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. On day three (05 June), the expected geomagnetic
activity is due to the arrival of the CME observed on May 31/2134Z.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 074
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/008-007/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01