Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity – 2 June 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jun 02 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of

an M-class event late in the period.  Region 9979 (S30E50) produced

an M1.1 x-ray flare, which peaked at 02/2044 UTC.  The optical

enhancement remained in progress at the end of the period, but

preliminary reports suggest a 1f intensity.  This event also

produced a moderate tenflare (530 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep

(estimated velocity 1079 km/s).  Several C-class events also

occurred throughout the day: Region 9977 (S20W54) produced a C8/Sf

event at 02/1015 UTC with associated Type-II (estimated velocity 323

km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps.  Region 9973 (S17E10) produced an

impulsive C9/Sf at 02/1147 UTC.  A long duration C3.2 x-ray

enhancement peaked at 02/0050 UTC, but lacked correlating optical

activity reports.  Three new regions came into view on the east limb

and were numbered today:  9981 (S22E70), 9982 (S03E74), and 9983

(N24E72).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist

at low to moderate levels for the next three days.  A small chance

for an isolated major flare also exists for the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quite to active levels.  A rising trend

in solar wind speed and fluctuating IMF, in possible association

with a weak coronal hole close to geoeffective longitudes on the

sun, caused predominantly unsettled and isolated active periods

throughout the day.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the

next two days.  Some combined effects from the numerous solar events

of the past 48 hours are anticipated during this period.  Conditions

are expected to be mainly unsettled by the end of the forecast

period.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Jun 175

Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  170/170/165

90 Day Mean        02 Jun 183

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/015-020/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/35/25

Minor storm           05/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/35/25

Minor storm           10/15/05

Major-severe storm    01/05/01