Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. There have been two
B-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. Region 1243 (N16E08)
produced a B2 event at 01/2111Z, and Region 1242 (N18W57) produced a
B1 event at 1121Z. Region 1243 showed growth in the leader spot,
but the trailer spots decayed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind data indicated
speeds between 360 – 430 km/s, consistent with a weak high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for an isolated
active period on days 1 and 2 (3 – 4 July). Day 3 (5 July) is
expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 086
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 086/086/086
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 007/010-007/010-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01