Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred. New Region 1391 (N13E81) was numbered today as it rotated
around the East limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next 3
days (3-5 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January). Activity is
forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible
active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector
boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet
on day 3 (5 January).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 135
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 000/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 006/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/15/05