Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1140
(N32E40) was the sole source of today’s occasional B-class flares.
It remained an H-type group with no significant changes noted.
Region 1141 (N34W39) decayed to a B-type group. Region 1142 (S12E21)
showed a minor increase in area and remained a D-type group with a
beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels during the period (03 – 05 January) with a
chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period (03 – 05 January).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 091
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01