Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Jan 2003

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event occurred
during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 1306 UTC. SOHO/EIT images suggest
that newly assigned Region 242 (S08E61) was the source for the
event. New Region 241 (S25W40) was assigned today. Region 239
(S09W17) continues to be the largest group on the disk with an area
of 70 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind density,
velocity, and total magnetic field showed a steady increase
beginning around 1700 UTC. This may mark the beginning of a
corotating interaction associated with a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active over the next two days
due to coronal hole effects. A decline to mostly unsettled is
expected by the third day.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Jan 118
• Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/125/125
• 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 012/015-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05