Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (03-05 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 February) due to CH
HSS effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on days
2 and 3 (04-05 February).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 118
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01