Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was
visible on LASCO C3 starting at 01/2330Z, but appears to be backside
through analysis of the STEREO coronagraphs.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (3 February) until the
anticipated mid-day arrival of the CME from 30 January, when a minor
storm is likely. Conditions for days 2-3 (4-5 February) are forecast
to begin at mostly unsettled to active and then decrease to
primarily quiet with a few isolated unsettled periods as the coronal
hole effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 079
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/015-010/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor storm 50/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/50
Minor storm 60/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/05