Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Feb 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
February 2, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Feb 2003
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SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 276 (S14E66) produced
numerous C-flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was
a C2/Sf at 0334 UTC. The region appears to be an E-type sunspot
group with an area of about 240 millionths. Region 274 (S06E05)
showed some growth during the past 24 hours, and displayed
occasional brightenings but did not produce any flare level
activity. The remaining solar active regions were quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels with a
period of major storm levels at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC.
The enhanced solar wind flow which was reported yesterday continued
during the past 24 hours, with speeds in the 500 to 700 km/s range
and total magnetic field around 10 to 12 nT. Occasional periods of
southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field were
associated with times of enhanced geomagnetic activity.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active during the next 24 hours,
but there will probably be some periods of minor storm levels as the
current disturbance persists partway into the first day. A decrease
to mostly unsettled is expected for the second day. An increase to
unsettled to active is anticipated on the third day in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb

  • Class M 35/35/35
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Feb 127
  • Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 130/135/140
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/050
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/030-010/015-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/30
  • Minor storm 20/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/35
  • Minor storm 25/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 15/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.