Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S20E29) continues to show growth in magnetic
complexity, sunspot formation, and areal coverage. New Region 1365
(N20E13) was numbered today and classified as a beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (03 – 05 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(03-05 December).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 157
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 160/165/165
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 03/03/03
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 14/14/14
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05