Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
New Region 1131 (N30E68) was numbered during the period and is an
Hsx-Alpha type spot group. Region 1130 (N14W52) remained stable and
quiet throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (03-05 December) with a chance for
isolated C-class flares from Region 1130.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods during the next three days (03-05 December) due to possible
effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament
observed on 29 November. The CME observed near N15E40 on 30
November may also contribute to elevated activity throughout the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 087
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 010/010-008/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01