Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar Activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (03-04 Dec). Conditions
are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for isolated active periods as a recurrent coronal hole
becomes geoeffective early on day three (05 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 071
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05