Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Dec 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 208 (N10E35) produced
the largest event of the period, a C9/Sf flare at 02/1927 UTC.  This
region has undergone minor growth in size and spot count and shown
an increase in magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours.  Region
207 (S20E06) remains the largest region on the visible disk, and
produced a C1/Sf flare at 02/2033 UTC.  An impressive partial-halo
CME was visible over the northwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
starting at about 02/1750 UTC, but a lack in corresponding
observations of notable x-ray enhancement or optical flare activity
suggests a likely backside source for this event. Two new regions
were numbered today:  Region 211 (S08E04) and Region 212 (N13E75).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a slight chance for moderate flare activity
during the next three days.  Region 208 appears to be the most
likely source for possible M-class activity during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels
today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely
to persist at high levels for the next one to three days.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 146
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  155/160/175
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  012/015-010/012-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01