Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 August 2012

By SpaceRef Editor
August 2, 2012
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1532 (S18W28) and 1535
(N17E24) produced C-class flares; the largest was a C1 at 0456Z. An
additional C1 event was observed at 1310Z off the west limb (near
old Region 1526). A coronal mass ejection was associated with the
behind-limb event, but is not expected to be geoeffective. New
Region 1539 (S22E60) was numbered and is a small bipolar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels. A
transient from the 28 July CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 02/0954Z, producing active to minor storm activity
levels from 02/1200Z through the end of the analysis period. Bz was
continuously negative multiple times throughout the period, peaking
at -12.3 nT at 02/1220Z. Solar wind showed a slight increase to 496
km/s at 02/1938Z and has since subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 August) followed by
mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (04-05 August).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 135
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.