Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1261 (N15W21) produced a long duration M1/1N flare at
02/0619Z with associated Type IV, Type II (estimated speed of 1067
km/s), and Tenflare (220 sfu) radio emissions. LASCO C3 imagery
indicated a full halo coronal mass ejection also associated with
this event. Region 1261 maintained its Fkc type spot group
classification and Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region
1263 ((N17E08) produced multiple C-class events and maintained its
Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. Region 1260 (N15W21) remained quiet
and stable. Region 1265 (N16W80) was quiet as it began to rotate
off the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next
three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both
capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of
producing an energetic proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
data observed at the ACE satellite indicated a decrease in solar
wind speed from 550 km/s to 450 km/s as the effects from the coronal
hole high speed stream waned. The GOES 13 satellite observed an
enhancement of the 10 MeV protons associated with the period’s M1
flare.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to
be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions
late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled
to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in
activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass
ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a
chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock
arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 65/65/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 15/15/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 122
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 005/005-012/012-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/40/45
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/40/45
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10