Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares were
observed, one of which was produced by Region 1092 (N16E10). Region
1092 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cho group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 August)
due to the arrival of the first of two CMEs observed on 01 August
(this CME was associated with the long-duration C3/Sf flare at
01/0826Z). Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 – 3 (04 – 05
August) due to the arrival of the second slower CME observed on 01
August (associated with a large filament disappearance).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 079
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 080/082/084
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-018/022-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/50
Minor storm 05/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/45/40
Minor storm 10/25/35
Major-severe storm 01/10/15