Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (03 – 04 August).  By day
three (05 August), the field is expected to be quiet to unsettled
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected
to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 068
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01