Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Aug 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Aug 02 2340 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 39 (S15W70)

produced an M1/0F event at 02/1053 UTC.  Regions 39, 44 (S21W76),

and 50 (S08W59) all retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration

today.  A new region was numbered today as Region 59 (N14E67).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate.  Several regions on the disk are capable of producing

an isolated major event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm conditions.  A

shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 01/2220 UTC, resulting

in a sudden impulse of 66 nt at 01/2313 UTC recorded on the Boulder

magnetometer.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Periods of active levels are

possible for August 03-04 from a coronal hole passage.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug

Class M    75/65/55

Class X    20/15/10

Proton     20/15/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Aug 180

Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  175/170/165

90 Day Mean        02 Aug 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  027/026

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  025/028

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/25

Minor storm           15/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/30/30

Minor storm           20/15/15

Major-severe storm    10/05/05