Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 2, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Aug 02 2340 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 39 (S15W70)
produced an M1/0F event at 02/1053 UTC. Regions 39, 44 (S21W76),
and 50 (S08W59) all retained a magnetic beta-gamma configuration
today. A new region was numbered today as Region 59 (N14E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
an isolated major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm conditions. A
shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 01/2220 UTC, resulting
in a sudden impulse of 66 nt at 01/2313 UTC recorded on the Boulder
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Periods of active levels are
possible for August 03-04 from a coronal hole passage.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 75/65/55
Class X 20/15/10
Proton 20/15/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 180
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 175/170/165
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 027/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.