Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1183 (N15W12)
produced only B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class)
from Region 1183 during the period (03 – 05 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day one (03
April) with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
two and three (04 – 05 April) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 108
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01