Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1576
(S22E62) produced a few C-class flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
19/1512Z. Both Region 1576 and 1575 (N10E62) continue to rotate
onto the disk and appear to have beta magnetic characteristics. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (20 – 22 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
satellite measurements of the solar wind observed steady velocities
at about 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +8 to -10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (20
September). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active intervals is expected for days two and three (21 – 22
September) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 110
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 009/010-008/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/30