Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1296 (N26W05) produced a
long duration C6 flare at 19/0737Z. Region 1301 (N20E63) produced a
C6/Sn flare at 19/1541Z. SOHO LASCO imagery observed 4 CME limb
events in the past 24 hours, none of which are expected to be
geoeffective. Region 1295 remains a beta gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (20-22 September). A chance for isolated
M-class flares exists from Region 1295.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 141
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 09/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01