Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with only B-class activity
observed. Region 1106 (S20W34) and Region 1108 (S30E36) exhibited
little change during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low. A chance of C-class activity, with a slight
chance of M-class activity, is possible for the next three days (20
– 22 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (20 September). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on day two (21
September). Mostly unsettled, with isolated active to minor storm
levels, are expected on day three (22 September). The increase in
activity is due to a large, recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 081
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 082/082/083
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-008/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01