Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).

III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Sep 068
• Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 005/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01