Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 20 September and mostly unsettled on 21 September as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Conditions are expected to remain unsettled to active, with a chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes, on 22 September.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Sep 067
• Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 067/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/008-008/008-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/15/35
• Minor storm 01/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/15/35
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10