Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Sep 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E37) produced occasional B-class flares. A weak Type II radio sweep was observed at 18/2356Z, which was associated with a faint CME from Region 910. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods were in response to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed was near 650 km/s, but gradually declined to under 500 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Sep 073
- Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 075/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 016/024
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 012/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/10/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01