Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Sep 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 19 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 808 (S11W78) continued its rapid decay phase. Just a few C-class flares occurred, the largest a C3 at 0350 UTC. One new region, Region 811 (S10E00) emerged on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was very high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to mildly active.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep

• Class M 20/10/10
• Class X 10/05/05
• Proton 10/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Sep 091
• Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 008/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 010/020-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05