Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near +/-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 141
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/10