Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1112 (S20W70)
produced a few C-class events during the period, the largest a
C1.3/Sf at 19/0651Z. Regions 1113 (N17W03) and 1115 (S29E13) each
produced moderate-level B-class activity. Two new regions were
numbered during the period. Region 1117 (N25E74) rotated onto the
disk as a large H-type spot group while Region 1118 (N16E61) formed
on the disk as a simple uni-polar spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class activity all
three days of the period (20 – 22 October). A slight chance for
M-class activity exists from Region 1112 on 20 October as the region
approaches the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as a weak
coronal hole wind stream moved into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active
periods, on days one and two (20 – 21 October) due to continued
coronal hole high-speed stream effects. By day three (22 October),
mostly quiet levels are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 15/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 087
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01