Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (20 – 22 October).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 071
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01