Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (20 – 22 October).

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Oct 070
• Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 069/069/068
• 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/01
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01